BTCUSD – Trend Alignment and Breakout Confirmation
Bullish impulse confirmed – eyes on the Fibonacci 138.2 confluence
Since the last analysis — From Liquidity Grab to Launchpad — BTCUSD has evolved according to plan, with bullish structure emerging and synchronizing across multiple timeframes.
Daily: Impulse from Reaction Zone
The market responded with strength after entering the previously marked daily reaction zone, launching a clear and impulsive leg to the upside. This move validated the zone’s significance and acted as confirmation that buyers were stepping in aggressively.
H4: Countertrend Broken, Trend Re-Aligned
After the daily impulse, BTCUSD entered a minor H4 countertrend, which has now been broken to the upside, bringing the H4 structure back in line with the dominant daily trend. This synchronization strengthens the bullish case, as both timeframes now support further upside continuation.
📌 A synchronized daily and H4 trend increases the probability of entering an expansion phase — a phase where price moves faster and more directionally.
With higher timeframe resistances cleared, the only remaining structure is a clean breakdown level on the M5 chart at around $109,934. This micro-level resistance may invite new buyers upon a confirmed breakout, especially from short-term traders and scalpers front-running the larger move.
Target Zone: Weekly & H4 Fibonacci 138.2
The next high-probability target lies at the confluence of the:
H4 target Fibonacci 138.2
Weekly target Fibonacci 138.2
This confluence provides a strong magnet for price and a potential zone for profit-taking or reaction.
Scenario If Price Pulls Back
Should the market fall below the last H4 pivot at around $109,047, it would re-enter the short-term correction zone. However, this would not invalidate the overall long thesis. Instead, it may offer another opportunity for buyers to enter the market at better risk-reward levels.
Summary
✅ Daily impulse confirms bullish reaction from key zone
A strong upward move from the daily reaction zone has validated the bullish scenario and initiated a new leg in the trend.
✅ H4 countertrend broken, aligning with daily
The break above the H4 correction structure has re-established alignment with the dominant daily trend, enhancing the momentum outlook.
✅ Only M5 breakdown remains — possible short-term resistance
The only remaining technical resistance is a clean breakdown on the M5 chart, which may attract short-term buying interest upon breakout.
🎯 Target: Weekly + H4 Fibonacci 138.2 confluence
Price is now approaching the H4 and weekly Fibonacci 138.2 levels — a high-probability target zone for continued expansion.
⚠️ Invalidation below: Last H4 pivot (watch short-term correction zone)
A move below the last H4 pivot would place BTC back in the correction zone. This does not negate the bullish structure, but it would delay continuation and potentially offer a better re-entry opportunity.
I don’t forecast, I analyze the trend structure and identify reaction zones where synchronized timeframes can trigger directional expansions.
