WTI Crude Oil – Daily Structure Enters Neutral Zone After Rejection
Clean move off $74.84 weekly trigger defines two-sided playbook between $60.00 and $74.84
Market Overview
WTI Crude Oil has entered a broad neutral zone on the daily chart after a strong impulsive rally was rejected just below the upper bound of the descending channel. The recent failure to hold above $74.84 highlights structural indecision, suggesting traders should now monitor both upside continuation and downside breakdown triggers with equal attention.
Daily Chart
The macro descending channel remains intact, with price reacting cleanly to both the upper and lower bounds over the past year. The most recent rally broke above a cluster of monthly pivot levels at $69.94 and $71.38, reaching into the green descending channel resistance before swiftly reversing.
This rejection confirms $74.84 as the key daily long trigger, while the reclaim of $58.98 (clean daily breakout) defines the bottom of the current neutral zone. Price is now consolidating within this range, forming a potential base or sideways move before the next directional move.
The area between $58.98 and $74.84 should be treated as a neutral zone, with potential for reaccumulation or distribution depending on how price interacts with key levels.
Key Trigger Levels
Long Trigger (Green): $74.84 – Break above the descending trendline and the daily breakdown could open momentum toward the next major resistance.
Short Trigger (Red): $58.98 – Breakdown below the weekly pivot zone and the daily breakout confirms bearish continuation toward lower support.
Target Zones
Daily Expansion Target: $85.32 – Clear daily target if $74.84 breaks, a clean daily breakdown.
Weekly Breakdown Target: $52.60 – A weekly breakout acting as a support from prior structure lows, likely only in play if $60.00 breaks cleanly.
Conclusion
WTI is structurally trapped in a wide neutral zone. A break above $74.84 sets up bullish continuation toward $85.32, while a failure to hold $58.98 exposes downside risk toward $52.60. Until either of these levels are taken out, short-term trades within the range must be managed tactically.
How are you interpreting this rejection off the daily channel? Share your view in the comments—let’s compare frameworks.