The September COT Regime Shift | USD Squeeze, Crowded Tech, and Extreme Crypto Positioning
The Smart Money Map: Who’s Buying, Who’s Hedging, and Where the Squeezes Are Setting Up | Analysis of the September 30 Report.
Dear Traders,
I’ve created a COT Analyst AI agent. Still testing it, but here’s a full COT take on, based on the 2025-09-30 report.
First market by market, then give cross-market long/short rankings at the end.
Let me know what you think!
1. S&P 500 (SP500)
Specs
Net short ~137k contracts, but only mid-range spec_pct_3y ~48 and spec_z ≈ -0.8 → underweight, not a panic extreme.
Strong recent distribution: specs sold heavily over the last month (spec_delta_4w ≈ -161k).
This looks more like “de-risking” than a crowded directional bet.
Commercials & OI
Comms net long ~50k, with comm_z ≈ +0.7 → they’ve been adding into weakness (1–4w comm_deltas all positive).
OI very low (oi_pct_3y ≈ 5, z ≈ -1.1) → index futures positioning is light; crowded index hedging has been cleared out.
Trend & Vol Context
Indices remained in an uptrend into end-September: S&P up ~3–4% in September and positive on Q3, grinding higher despite macro worries.
Volatility: episodic spikes around Fed cuts & macro headlines, but not a crisis regime.
Narrative & Bias
Specs have backed off longs and are moderately short, commercials modestly long, OI washed-out.
Within a broader uptrend, this is supportive to the downside (less fuel for a big long liquidation; shorts can be squeezed if catalysts hit).
Directional bias: Mildly bullish (Long-lean)
Reliability:
Long side: 6/10 (supportive structure but no true extreme)
Short side: 3/10 (you’d basically be fading both trend and positioning)
Daytrading flavor (if you trade intraday)
Regime: grinding trend with occasional shakeouts; good for trend days after news, choppier in between.
Playability next week: 6/10 – tradable, but cleaner moves likely in NAS100 / CRUDE / GOLD.
2. Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)
Specs
Net long ~41k, with spec_pct_2y & 3y ≈ 99 and spec_z ≈ +1.75 → crowded spec long.
Specs keep adding (strongly positive 1–4w deltas) → late-stage chase behavior.
Commercials & OI
Comms net short ~48k, comm percentiles very high, comm_z ≈ -1.3 → they’ve been aggressively selling into the rally / hedging.
OI elevated (oi_pct_3y ≈ 71, z ≈ 0), with mixed recent flows (up 1w, down over 2–4w) → still crowded but starting to stall.
Trend & Vol
Fundamental backdrop: indices in ongoing uptrend, tech-heavy NAS100 still leadership but with concentration risk and sensitivity to growth/AI narrative.
Vol: can flip between grind and violent rotations when big tech wobbles.
Narrative & Bias
Classic crowded long / commercial-hedged structure with elevated OI.
COT says late-stage long, vulnerable to air-pocket corrections on bad news or yield spikes.
Directional bias: Tactical Short / Underweight on strength
Reliability:
Short: 7/10 – textbook crowded-long profile
Long: 3/10 – you’re riding a mature trend with poor positioning cushion
Daytrading implications
Regime: squeeze-driven trend, late-stage – great when it breaks, nasty fakeouts at highs.
Bias on trend days: favor shorts on failed breakouts / lower highs rather than early dip-buying.
Playability: 8/10 – one of the best intraday instruments, just respect risk.
3. Dow Jones (DJIA)
Specs
Net short ~15k, spec_pct_3y ≈ 14, spec_z ≈ -2.9 → tactical extreme spec short, washed-out percentile.
Specs have sold heavily over 2–4w, then paused 1w → shorts are in place, less fresh fuel.
Commercials & OI
Comms net long ~13k, comm_z ≈ +2.6, percentiles mid-high → commercials steadily buying into the move.
OI low (oi_pct_3y ≈ 26, z ≈ -0.9); 2–4w OI is down → old participants have exited; remaining shorts are quite concentrated.
Trend & Vol
Dow continues to lag S&P/Nasdaq but still positive, benefitting from cyclicals/financials.
Narrative & Bias
This is close to a squeeze-long setup:
Specs washed-out and short
Comms long & still adding
Light OI (low crowding)
Directional bias: Bullish / Squeeze-long candidate
Reliability:
Long: 7/10 – strong structural pattern
Short: 2/10 – would be fighting both COT & trend
Daytrading
Often slower than SPX/NDX, but when shorts unwind it can trend smoothly.
Playability: 5/10 – good supplementary index, but SPX/NDX usually cleaner.
4. Gold (GOLD)
Specs
Net long ~253k, spec_pct_3y ≈ 80 (elevated), spec_z ≈ +0.4 → structurally large, not yet a z-score blow-off.
Massive 1–4w spec buying (≈ +250k) → specs have piled in aggressively very recently.
Commercials & OI
Comms net short big size, comm percentiles high, comm_z ≈ -0.6 → classic producer/central-bank hedging into strength.
OI high (oi_pct_3y mid-high, z ≈ +0.1) with mixed recent changes (down 1–2w, flat 4w) → crowding is there, but some churn after an initial spike.
Trend & Vol
Gold at/near record highs ~4,000+, up >50% YoY, with October–November still in an uptrend after corrections.
Vol: high, with sharp corrections but an underlying bullish macro (real yields, Fed cuts, geopolitics).
Narrative & Bias
Structure screams crowded long, late-trend, but macro is strongly supportive.
Best play is usually take-profit / hedge longs rather than outright big shorts, unless you see a clear macro shift.
Directional bias: Slightly bearish / Take-profit on strength
Reliability:
Short: 6/10 – positioning supportive but macro hostile
Long: 5/10 – trend friend, but positioning risk is large
Daytrading
Regime: high-vol trend with big squeezes – very playable but unforgiving.
Playability: 7/10 – great for active traders, but size and stops must be disciplined.
5. WTI Crude Oil (CRUDE)
Specs
Net long ~103k, but spec_pct_3y ≈ 3 and spec_z ≈ -1.6 → positioning is still very light vs 3y, even after recent buying.
Specs have added ~100k over 1–4w → early accumulation from washed-out levels.
Commercials & OI
Comms are heavily net short, with comm_z ≈ +1.3 and very low percentiles → producers re-engaging hedges as specs come back.
OI very high (oi_pct_3y ≈ 96, z ≈ +1.2) and rising strongly (big positive 1–4w OI changes) → fresh participation wave.
Trend & Vol
WTI is in the high-50s/low-60s, having sold off from earlier peaks; recent price action: modest rebound but still relatively low.
Vol: medium/high with spikes around inventory and OPEC headlines.
Narrative & Bias
Structurally, specs are only just rebuilding longs off very depressed levels; OI expansion confirms a new cycle of participation.
This is more early-cycle recovery than late-stage euphoria.
Directional bias: Mildly bullish (early accumulation)
Reliability:
Long: 5/10 – good asymmetry, but macro (rising inventories, soft demand forecast) is a drag
Short: 4/10 – you’re leaning with fundamentals but against a rebuilding spec base
Daytrading
Regime: directional but headline-sensitive → good intraday swings around EIA/OPEC, sometimes choppy in between.
Playability: 7/10 – one of the better futures for intraday trend + mean-reversion opportunities.
6. EUR (EUR futures → broadly EUR/USD view)
Specs
Net long ~117k, with spec_pct_2y ≈ 85 (elevated), spec_pct_3y ≈ 63, spec_z ≈ +1.1.
Very strong 1–4w spec buying (~+115–120k) → crowd is actively rotating long EUR.
Commercials & OI
Comms net short ~167k, comm percentiles very high, comm_z ≈ -1.0 → substantial hedging against EUR strength.
OI extremely high (oi_pct_3y ≈ 97, z ≈ +1.5) → crowding confirmed.
Trend & Vol
EUR/USD has been in a broad uptrend as USD weakened in 2025; it broke out of a 1.15–1.17 range to the upside and trades mid-1.16–1.17+.
Narrative & Bias
This is a crowded EUR-long / USD-short structure:
Specs aggressively long
Comms heavily short
OI at extreme highs
Medium-term, that skews risk toward corrections if data or the Fed surprise hawkish.
Directional bias: Mildly bearish EUR vs USD (fade strength)
Reliability:
Short EUR: 6–7/10 – strong structural signals
Long EUR: 4/10 – riding trend with poor positioning cushion
Daytrading
Regime: range-with-breaks – nice when macro hits, can be rangy otherwise.
Playability: 6/10 – solid FX daytrading pair when catalysts are on the calendar.
7. USD (Dollar Index futures)
Specs
Net short ~13.6k, with spec_pct_2y & 3y ≈ 0, spec_z ≈ -1.9 → max-bearish specs, structural extreme.
Specs have kept selling over 1–4w.
Commercials & OI
Comms net long ~13.8k, comm_z ≈ +1.8, high percentiles → commercials have built a significant long hedge against USD downside.
OI mid-range (oi_pct_3y ≈ mid-40s, z ≈ +0.2) → not super crowded overall; the extremity is largely in who holds positions (specs vs comms), not in total size.
Trend & Vol
DXY is down ~10% YTD into September, its steepest fall in decades, but has started to stabilise and rebound slightly.
Narrative & Bias
This is your cleanest squeeze-long setup in FX:
Specs at record bearishness
Comms long
Price starting to base
COT is effectively saying: USD downside is mature; risk of a USD bounce/mean reversion is high.
Directional bias: Bullish USD (vs a basket; especially vs crowded longs like EUR/JPY/EM)
Reliability:
Long USD: 8/10 – very strong, textbook pattern
Short USD: 2/10 – you’re very late to the party
Daytrading
DXY itself isn’t a daytrading vehicle, but the read tells you:
Prefer USD-buying dips in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, etc.
Playability (as tradable insight into FX majors): 6/10.
8. GBP
Specs
Net short ~8.9k, spec_pct_3y ≈ 30, spec_z ≈ -0.9 → modestly bearish, not washed-out.
Recent flows: steady spec selling over 1–4w, accelerating on the longer horizon.
Commercials & OI
Comms net long ~7.7k, comm_z ≈ +0.8, low-ish percentile → they’re cautiously on the other side.
OI mid-high (oi_pct_3y ≈ low-60s, z ≈ +0.5) with mild declines 1–2w → active but not extreme.
Trend & Vol
GBP typically benefits from USD weakness but tends to be more range-bound and idiosyncratic than EUR.
Narrative & Bias
No real structural extreme; just moderate spec shorts vs modest commercial longs.
COT doesn’t scream a big contrarian edge here.
Directional bias: Slightly bullish GBP vs USD / overall Neutral
Reliability:
Long: 4–5/10
Short: 4/10 – basically a carry/macro play, not a COT one
Daytrading
Often choppy and headline-driven (UK data, BoE repricing).
Playability: 4/10 – watch but don’t prioritize unless you have a specific catalyst.
9. JPY
Specs
Net long ~61k, spec_pct_3y ≈ 80 (elevated), but spec_z ≈ -0.2 → structurally big longs, but not an extreme vs last year.
Huge 1–4w spec inflows (+60–80k) → the crowd has recently rotated into long JPY (typical “carry unwind / safe haven” trade).
Commercials & OI
Comms net short ~60k, with mild positive z → hedging into JPY strength.
OI moderately high (oi_pct_3y ≈ 69, z ≈ +0.1), but note massive 4w OI drop (~-108k) → many positions (likely earlier shorts) have been taken off.
Trend & Vol
JPY has been recovering after years of weakness, helped by BoJ normalization chatter and lower US yields.
Narrative & Bias
Trade is crowded on the long side recently, but overall OI indicates a clean-up of old positions.
It’s no longer a “huge short-squeeze candidate”; now it’s more a consensus defensive long.
Directional bias: Mildly bullish JPY, but late and crowded
Reliability:
Long: 5/10 – decent macro story, but COT not supportive for new longs
Short: 4/10 – dangerous to stand in front of the macro
Daytrading
Vol: can be spiky around BoJ/US data, with gaps and sharp mean reversion.
Playability: 5/10 – good for news trading, messy outside catalysts.
10. Bitcoin (BTC)
Specs
Net flat (~-100), spec_pct_3y ≈ mid-60s, spec_z ≈ +0.5 → mild long tilt, nothing extreme.
Flows tiny relative to total market (deltas in the low hundreds) → futures COT is not driving the bus here.
Commercials & OI
Commercials tiny, also near flat; changes are small.
OI mid-range (oi_pct_3y ≈ 50, z ≈ -1.1) with small declines 1–2w → leverage is not excessive in this dataset.
Trend & Vol
Price: BTC surged over $110k by late September, then saw a sharp sell-off with ~$1.7B liquidations, but is still very elevated and volatile.
Narrative & Bias
COT says positioning is surprisingly clean given the huge moves.
That means price will dominate over positioning; no strong squeeze edge either way.
Directional bias: Neutral (no clear COT edge)
Reliability:
Long: 4/10 (trend up, but purely price/macro driven)
Short: 4/10 (high vol could go either way; no crowded long to liquidate)
Daytrading
Regime: hyper-volatile, headline-sensitive, great for momentum and mean-reversion scalps.
Playability: 8/10 – very good for active traders who can manage risk.
11. Ethereum (ETH)
Specs
Net long ~3.6k, but spec_pct_2y & 3y = 100, spec_z ≈ +2.9 → maximal structural + tactical spec long extreme.
Specs have added consistently over 1–4w, not taking profits yet.
Commercials & OI
Comms net short ~3.8k, comm_pct_2y & 3y = 100, comm_z ≈ -2.9 → commercials are at maximum short/hedge.
OI at extremes (oi_pct_2y & 3y ≈ 99, oi_z ≈ +2.1), with positive OI changes 1–4w → leverage and participation are both at rare highs.
Trend & Vol
ETH trades around $4.1k–4.2k at the COT date, with analyst expectations of further upside but rising two-way volatility.
Narrative & Bias
This is one of the clearest crowded-long setups in your entire universe:
Specs max long
Comms max short
OI max high and rising
That is the classic late-stage euphoric positioning where downside air-pockets can be brutal.
Directional bias: Bearish / Short-lean, or at least underweight vs BTC/Gold
Reliability:
Short: 8/10 – all COT pillars align
Long: 2/10 – you’d be betting purely on continued mania
Daytrading
Regime: squeeze-prone, late-stage trend – great for active traders, brutal for late FOMO longs.
Playability: 8/10 – excellent volatility and range, but treat risk with respect.
Cross-Market View & Rankings
Top Long Candidates (COT-driven, medium term)
USD (Dollar Index)
Specs at 0th percentile, heavily short; commercials long; DXY basing.
Bias: Long USD vs crowded long currencies (EUR, JPY).
Reliability: 8/10.
DJIA
Specs washed-out short with tactical extreme z, comms long, OI light.
Bias: Long / squeeze-long.
Reliability: 7/10.
CRUDE
Specs rebuilding from very low percentiles, OI expanding strongly.
Bias: Early-cycle long, especially on dips.
Reliability: 5/10 (macro headwinds).
SP500
Modest spec shorts, comms long, OI washed-out in an overall uptrend.
Bias: Mild long.
Reliability: 6/10.
(GBP & JPY are more macro/relative trades; COT edge is weaker.)
Top Short / De-Risk Candidates
ETH
Max spec long, max comm short, OI max high → pure late-stage crowd.
Bias: Short / underweight.
Reliability: 8/10.
NAS100
Specs at 99th percentile long, comms short, OI elevated; late-stage growth/AI story.
Bias: Tactical short on strength.
Reliability: 7/10.
GOLD
Elevated spec longs, commercial hedging, high OI in a powerful macro uptrend.
Bias: Take-profit / light tactical short, not a structural bear.
Reliability: 6/10.
EUR
Strong spec longs, heavy comm shorts, OI extreme.
Bias: Short EUR vs USD (or at least fade spikes).
Reliability: 6–7/10.
(BTC sits in the middle: high vol but no strong COT skew, so more of a price-action play.)
Daytrader-Style “Playability” Ranking (1st week of October)
Most intraday-playable (vol + structure + trend):
8/10: NAS100, BTC, ETH, GOLD, CRUDE
6–7/10: SP500, EURUSD / FX using the USD bias
5/10: DJIA, JPY pairs
4/10: GBP pairs (choppy, less edge)