📈 SOYBEAN // daily countertrend
Better opportunities waiting in the long trend
Key Chart (Daily)
The market is in a daily short countertrend within the weekly and daily long trend.
Upon a close above this daily short countertrend’s impulse base, the market is back in sync with the weekly, and the next target is the weekly/daily breakdown aligned with the weekly/daily target Fibonacci 138.2 zone.
Key Fundamentals
The soybean market is currently navigating global production shifts, trade tensions, and policy uncertainties. As of February 2025, soybeans are trading at $1,025.85 per bushel, with analysts predicting price stabilization in the coming months (Trading Economics).
Key Factors
Global Production Trends:
Brazil, the world’s top soybean producer, is slowing planting expansion due to shrinking profit margins and low global prices. Despite this, global soybean stocks are projected to hit record highs, largely driven by Brazil’s production (Reuters).
Trade Dynamics:
Chinese buyers are increasingly favoring Brazilian soybeans over U.S. soybeans, mainly due to concerns over U.S. import tariffs and cheaper Brazilian prices. In Q1 2024, Brazil accounted for 54% of China’s soybean imports, while the U.S. share dropped to 38% (Reuters).
Policy Developments:
The U.S. soybean sector faces uncertainty as President Donald Trump’s administration considers new trade policies. Potential tariffs on imports—particularly from China—could reshape global trade flows, worrying U.S. farmers about their market share (Reuters).
Market Outlook:
Despite strong recent U.S. soybean sales, total exports remain at a five-year low. Additionally, China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans are at their lowest level in 19 years outside of the 2018 trade war. Logistics challenges, including low water levels on the Mississippi River, have further disrupted exports (Reuters).
Actionable Insights
Bullish Case:
U.S. Domestic Processing Growth: If tariffs on vegetable oil imports are imposed, the U.S. crushing industry could benefit, strengthening domestic soybean demand (Reuters).
Increased Biofuel Demand: Growing biofuel sector reliance on soybean oil could support prices, offering alternative revenue streams for farmers.
Bearish Case:
China’s Shift Away from U.S. Soybeans: China’s long-term diversification strategy toward Brazilian soybeans could permanently reduce U.S. market share, leading to lower prices (Reuters).
Global Supply Surplus: Oversupply concerns due to record-high global soybean stocks—driven by Brazil’s high output—may further weigh on prices (Reuters).