Gold – Structure Break Signals Trend Shift
Weekly close under pivot defines short-term pressure; daily short trend targets active
In my previous post, “Gold at a Decision Zone After Reaching Major Monthly Target”, I outlined the high-probability scenario of a corrective phase following the tag of the monthly target Fibonacci 313.2. Price was pressing against a key structural threshold, and I noted that a countertrend may develop, and any close below the weekly pivot would mark the beginning of a potential daily trend reversal.
That scenario has now played out. With this week’s close confirming a break below the weekly pivot at 3,291.99, the short-term structure has shifted into correction mode. The following analysis details the current alignment across weekly, daily, and intraday timeframes—and outlines actionable re-entry zones for trend-aligned participation.
Market Overview
After reaching the long-standing monthly target Fibonacci 313.2 (near 3,440), the Gold has entered a corrective phase. The weekly structure is now under pressure, confirmed by a close below the weekly pivot at 3,291.99, breaking the prior long structure with a single bearish wave. This move initiates a valid short trend phase on the daily timeframe, with clearly defined downside targets.
Weekly Structure
The recent weekly close below the 3,291.99 pivot confirms a structural break in the broader bullish trend. This follows the major advance from late 2024 into mid-2025 that culminated near the monthly expansion zone. While the long-term trend remains intact above 2,937.44, short-term momentum favors continued correction.
Daily Chart
The daily timeframe shows a clean short trend developing within a well-defined red trend channel. This trend has now been validated by price rejection near the upper boundary of the channel and the break below the previous daily pivot zone. If the structure remains intact, it could lead to further downside into:
Breakout retest zone near 3,239.84
Target Fibonacci 100 at 3,120.43
Correction Fibonacci 23.6% zone and weekly breakout at 3,083.39
Correction Fibonacci 38.2% aligned with the next weekly breakout (2,937.44)
These levels form a high-probability sequence as long as price remains under the daily pivot.
H4 Timeframe
The H4 chart confirms the secondary short trend. Price is currently in a distribution phase within the short trend, with the red channel guiding directional flow. Any short-term retracement into the 3,291.99 pivot or rejection from the daily pivot zone offers opportunities to rejoin the short trend.
A break above 3,332.54 and consolidation above 3,355.08 could invalidate the short setup and initiate a minor long trend, targeting the clean H4 breakdown zone at 3,424.24. Sustained trade above this would re-enter the primary long trend and reopen upside into the monthly extension levels.
Key Trigger Levels
Short Trigger: H4/H1 longn countertrend break below the daily pivot at 3,323.10
Long Trigger (cyan): Break above 3,355.08 (daily pivot zone upper boundary)
Valid Target Zones
Daily Target Fibonacci 100: 3,120.43
Correction Fibonacci 23.6: 3,083.39
Validity
Daily pivot at 3,291.99 remains the active reference level for trend validation.
Conclusion
Gold is currently in a corrective phase after tagging a major monthly extension. The daily short trend is valid as long as price holds under the pivot zone, with clean downside expansion. A reversal above the daily pivot would invalidate this setup and open the door to a bullish continuation.
What’s your take on this market? Share your view in the comments—let’s compare frameworks.