DAX Awaits Breakout from Accumulation Phase
A confirmed move above key breakdown levels may reinitiate the bullish trend and trigger the next expansion leg
Accumulation at Support – Awaiting Breakout Confirmation
The DAX (GER40) is currently consolidating in an accumulation phase on the 4H timeframe, following a prior downleg that found support just above the key weekly and daily level at 23,607. Price action has since formed a short-term H4 countertrend, marked by lower highs and a descending trendline, which remains intact for now.
The current structure presents a potential reversal opportunity. A break of the H4 countertrend line, in confluence with reclaiming the green H1 breakdown level (~24,134), would indicate bullish intent and a possible transition back into the prevailing long trend.
However, confirmation of a bullish expansion phase will only occur above the weekly Fibonacci target 138.2 level (~24,317). This area also aligns with a prior clean H1 breakdown, serving as a critical decision point for momentum traders. A breakout above this zone would invalidate the prior bearish structure and unlock higher Fibonacci extension targets at:
24,440 (138.2% extension)
24,650 (150–161.8% cluster target)
As long as price holds above the weekly pivot support and continues to build a base within this accumulation range, the upside scenario remains valid. Failure to reclaim the H1 breakdown level, however, would keep the market within the corrective structure.
Key Levels to Watch
Support: 24,000 (H4), 23,607 (Weekly)
Resistance: 24,134 (H1 breakdown trigger), 24,317 (Expansion confirmation)
Bullish Targets: 24,440 and 24,650 (Fibonacci extensions)
Outlook
Neutral to Bullish, contingent on a confirmed breakout above 24,134 and ideally 24,317 to re-enter the expansion phase.