CORN ↗️

Major timeframes are in sync, still has some room to fill on the upside

Key Chart (DAILY - ZC1!)

Check out the explanations of colors on the chart.

All the major timeframes are in sync, showing a long trend close to the high end of the trend channel.

The weekly target fibo levels show some room. There is a daily order block in the way, but if the waves keep going up, targets are the weekly target fibo 138.2 and the clean daily breakdown.

Every countertrend in the lower timeframes allows hopping on the bullish ride.

Fundamental Factors

Supply Dynamics

1. Weather Conditions: Corn production is sensitive to weather, particularly in major producing regions like the U.S. Midwest, Brazil, and Argentina. Droughts or excessive rainfall can disrupt yields.

2. Acreage and Yields: USDA reports on planted acreage and yield estimates are critical for understanding supply levels.

3. Stock Levels: The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) provide insights into ending stocks, a key measure of surplus or deficit.

Demand Drivers

1. Feed Demand: Livestock feed is the largest consumer of corn, particularly in the U.S. and China.

2. Ethanol Production: In the U.S., corn is a major input for ethanol. Shifts in energy policy or crude oil prices can influence demand.

3. Global Trade: Export demand from countries like China is crucial. Trade relations and tariffs can significantly impact demand.

Macroeconomic Influences

1. Geopolitical Factors: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted global grain markets, shifting focus to U.S. and South American supplies.

2. Currency Movements: A strong U.S. dollar can make U.S. corn exports less competitive globally.

3. Policy Impacts: Subsidies, tariffs, or biofuel mandates directly influence corn markets.

Outlook

• Short-term: Prices are driven by planting season expectations, weather forecasts, and export activity.

• Medium-term: Global economic recovery and demand for biofuels support corn, but input cost inflation (e.g., fertilizers) may pressure production.

• Long-term: Growing global food demand ensures corn remains a vital commodity, but environmental and sustainable farming practices will shape future supply dynamics.