COCOA FUTURES | Multi-Timeframe Bearish Alignment
Confirmed downside structure with synchronized monthly, weekly, and daily phases targeting deeper Fibonacci zones.
The Market Flow | November 12, 2025
Technical Overview
Monthly
The monthly structure remains in Distribution, sustaining a clear series of lower highs beneath the descending countertrend line. Momentum continues to align with bearish expansion, maintaining bias short below the 9,791 pivot. The next major support aligns with the untested Fibonacci zone and structural shelf near 4,277, defining the longer-term continuation path.
Weekly
The weekly flow confirms alignment with the monthly trend, following a decisive breakdown through the prior pivot at 8,323–8,526. Price remains below both the countertrend line and trigger zone, validating continuation pressure toward the weekly Fibonacci projection at 4,858 and potential extension toward the 138.2% (4,858) level. Structural bias stays short below 8,526.
Daily
The daily timeframe has turned bearish after breaking the recent valley trigger. Waves have aligned downward, confirming entry into a new impulsive leg targeting the 138.2% (5,599) extension zone. The pivot at 6,201 acts as immediate invalidation; sustained closes below 6,002 support ongoing expansion toward 5,599–5,507.
Trade Structure & Levels
• Instrument: Cocoa Futures (Continuous Contract, Front Month: CCH2026)
• Bias: Short below 8,526 (Weekly pivot)
• Phase: Expansion
• Trigger: Daily close below 6,002 (correction daily pivot — activated)
• Invalidation: Daily close above 6,201
• Path → Toward 5,599 daily Fibonacci 138.2%, then 4,858 weekly expansion zone
Risk & Event Context
Volatility remains elevated across soft commodities as macro liquidity tightens and West African supply concerns ease. No major scheduled catalysts this week, but continued sensitivity to USD strength and global inflation data may impact momentum follow-through.
Conclusion
Major timeframes are fully synchronized in bearish structure. The breakdown below the daily valley trigger confirms momentum alignment toward medium-term Fibonacci targets. Invalidation remains clear above the daily pivot, preserving downside focus across the higher-timeframe flow.
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