📈 BITCOIN // primary long trend still valid
Expansion comes above the H4 counter-impulse base
Key Chart (H4)
The weekly is mixed (there was a break of structure, closing below the last impulse base, but no new wave to confirm the countertrend on the weekly), and the daily trend is still long, since there was no close below the last impulse base.
If the currently valid H4 countertrend breaks, along with the countertrend lines drawn on the closing prices on the daily and H4, another expansion may push the price to new all-time highs.
If this happens, the daily target fibo 138.2, aligned with the H4 target fibo 138.2 is a great target.
Key Fundamentals
Summary
Bitcoin has seen notable price movements, driven by regulatory developments, corporate adoption, and macroeconomic factors. As of February 1, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $102,040, slightly down from the previous day.
Key Factors
Regulatory Developments:
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has introduced new guidelines allowing companies to report real-time valuations of digital assets. This change enabled Tesla to record a $600 million profit from its Bitcoin holdings in Q4 2024, while MicroStrategy faces potential tax liabilities due to unrealized gains, as the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) will impose a 15% tax starting in 2026 (Investopedia).
Corporate Adoption:
MicroStrategy has expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 218,887 BTC, reinforcing its valuation’s dependency on Bitcoin’s price movement. Analysts expect continued adoption and institutional support to drive Bitcoin higher (MarketWatch).
Macroeconomic Factors:
The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates, despite acknowledging persistent inflation, has implications for Bitcoin. Lower interest rates have historically made non-yielding assets like Bitcoin more attractive. Additionally, political shifts, such as the re-election of President Donald Trump, have sparked optimism in the crypto market due to expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment (Barron’s, Financial Times).
Actionable Insights
Bullish Case:
Institutional Adoption: Growing corporate and financial interest in Bitcoin could drive further price appreciation.
Regulatory Clarity: A supportive legal framework could boost investor confidence and mainstream adoption.
Bearish Case:
Regulatory Challenges: Taxation and restrictive regulations could negatively impact demand and market sentiment.
High Volatility: Bitcoin remains highly speculative, making it vulnerable to sharp corrections.
What do you think about bitcoin? Are you going for an all-time high?