Technical Overview

Monthly

The monthly structure remains in Distribution, sustaining a clear series of lower highs beneath the descending countertrend line. Momentum continues to align with bearish expansion, maintaining bias short below the 9,791 pivot. The next major support aligns with the untested Fibonacci zone and structural shelf near 4,277, defining the longer-term continuation path.

Weekly

The weekly flow confirms alignment with the monthly trend, following a decisive breakdown through the prior pivot at 8,323–8,526. Price remains below both the countertrend line and trigger zone, validating continuation pressure toward the weekly Fibonacci projection at 4,858 and potential extension toward the 138.2% (4,858) level. Structural bias stays short below 8,526.

Daily

The daily timeframe has turned bearish after breaking the recent valley trigger. Waves have aligned downward, confirming entry into a new impulsive leg targeting the 138.2% (5,599) extension zone. The pivot at 6,201 acts as immediate invalidation; sustained closes below 6,002 support ongoing expansion toward 5,599–5,507.

Trade Structure & Levels

• Instrument: Cocoa Futures (Continuous Contract, Front Month: CCH2026)

• Bias: Short below 8,526 (Weekly pivot)

• Phase: Expansion

• Trigger: Daily close below 6,002 (correction daily pivot — activated)

• Invalidation: Daily close above 6,201

• Path → Toward 5,599 daily Fibonacci 138.2%, then 4,858 weekly expansion zone

Risk & Event Context

Volatility remains elevated across soft commodities as macro liquidity tightens and West African supply concerns ease. No major scheduled catalysts this week, but continued sensitivity to USD strength and global inflation data may impact momentum follow-through.

Conclusion

Major timeframes are fully synchronized in bearish structure. The breakdown below the daily valley trigger confirms momentum alignment toward medium-term Fibonacci targets. Invalidation remains clear above the daily pivot, preserving downside focus across the higher-timeframe flow.

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, derivative, or financial instrument. The analysis and opinions expressed reflect the author’s views at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice.

All information is derived from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty is made regarding future price behavior or outcomes.

Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial advisor before acting on any information contained herein.

The author and/or affiliates may hold, trade, or have a financial interest in the securities or instruments mentioned in this publication. Neither the author nor any associated party accepts liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this material.

Technical Overview

Instrument Note:

Analysis is based on the continuous Aluminum Futures (MCX) chart, with current structural reference taken from the front-month ALUMINIUMX2025 contract.

Monthly:

The monthly trend remains bullish, holding above the single active monthly pivot at 229.55. Structure confirms long-term expansion with steady upward momentum and no visible exhaustion. The higher timeframe remains the dominant driver of bias.

Weekly:

The weekly timeframe is in an active Expansion phase, advancing toward the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 277.40. The weekly pivot 255.20 secures directional bias; price action remains decisively above it. A weekly close below 255.20 would mark early correction, though trend bias remains intact while that level holds.

Daily:

Daily structure remains impulsive, preserving alignment with the higher timeframe. The daily pivot 270.25 defines invalidation — as long as daily waves remain upward, continuation toward higher-timeframe targets remains valid. Momentum is constructive while closes stay above this pivot.

H4:

The H4 structure confirmed a clean countertrend break through the “LONG” level, initiating continuation. Price has reclaimed the green dashed VAH at 273.20, which acts as immediate micro support. The H4 Fibonacci targets define the path:

→ 271.40 (138.2%)

→ 272.55 (161.8%)

→ 275.50 (200.0%)

The final objective aligns with the weekly 138.2% target at 277.40, completing the expansion sequence.

Trade Structure & Levels

• Bias: Long above 255.20 (Weekly pivot)

• Phase: Expansion

• Trigger: H4 countertrend break with waves above “LONG” level

• Invalidation: Daily close below 270.25 (Daily pivot)

• Path → 271.40 → 272.55 → 275.50 → 277.40

Risk & Event Context

Aluminum pricing remains sensitive to industrial demand, energy-cost shifts, and Chinese supply activity. Volatility may rise with LME inventory updates, macro data releases, and fluctuations in the USD, which often influence base-metal momentum.

Conclusion

All active timeframes confirm a bullish expansion structure supported by higher-timeframe pivots. With the monthly pivot 229.55, weekly pivot 255.20, and daily pivot 270.25 intact, continuation toward the 277.40 weekly 138.2% target remains the operative path. The H4 Fibonacci sequence frames short-term progression within this broader expansion.

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, derivative, or financial instrument. The analysis and opinions expressed reflect the author’s views at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice.

All information is derived from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty is made regarding future price behavior or outcomes.

Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial advisor before acting on any information contained herein.

The author and/or affiliates may hold, trade, or have a financial interest in the securities or instruments mentioned in this publication. Neither the author nor any associated party accepts liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this material.

Technical Overview

Instrument Note:

Analysis is based on the continuous Coffee C Futures chart (KC1!), with structural levels and near-term price references derived from the current front-month contract KCZ2025.

Weekly:

The primary trend remains bullish, with structure pressing against the 100 % Fibonacci extension at 406.75. Momentum stays constructive while the weekly pivot at 373.05 holds, sustaining the long bias. The phase remains in Expansion, targeting the 138.2 % zones at 437.99 and 452.75. A confirmed weekly close below 373.05 would neutralize the expansion and mark the start of corrective pressure.

Daily:

The daily structure has decisively broken the weekly 100 % Fibonacci target, supported by aligned upward waves. The daily pivot established at the recent valley defines the structural floor. Above it, flow maintains expansion potential toward 437.99–452.75. The green dashed VAH from the last correction was cleanly reclaimed, reinforcing continuation strength. A daily close below this pivot would confirm a shift into correction phase.

H4:

The H4 view mirrors the daily leg — a firm breakout above both the VAH and the daily 100 % Fib, confirming the continuation impulse. The H4 pivot now anchors short-term invalidation. Price action above 409.25 keeps the structure constructive toward H4 expansion at 422.75, followed by weekly objectives at 437.99 and 452.75. The trend remains upward while both pivots remain intact.

H1:

Lower-timeframe structure identifies a clean (not yet tested) H1 | EXP level at 422.75, marking the first countertrend breakdown within the ongoing expansion. This level offers potential short-term re-engagement if tested from above, though it requires active management given proximity to the prior impulse peak. A failure to hold this area could accelerate retracement toward the H4 pivot, while sustained support confirms the next expansion leg.

Trade Structure & Levels

• Bias: Long above 373.05 (Weekly pivot)

• Phase: Expansion

• Trigger:
  • Daily close above 406.75 (triggered)

  • H1 | EXP level at 422.75

• Invalidation:

  • Daily close below daily pivot (405.25)

  • H4 close below H4 pivot (404.40)

• Path → H1 | EXP test → 422.75 → 437.99 → 452.75

Risk & Event Context

Coffee C futures remain sensitive to Brazilian weather, harvest output, and USD volatility influencing soft-commodity pricing. Market participants should watch upcoming ICE inventory updates and commodity index rebalancing, both potential short-term volatility catalysts for KCZ2025 positioning.

Conclusion

Multi-timeframe alignment confirms active bullish expansion across weekly, daily, H4, and H1 structures. The break above the 100 % Fibonacci target keeps directional momentum intact while both pivots define clear invalidation. With the H1 | EXP providing tactical engagement potential, continuation toward upper Fibonacci zones remains favored — though management is key as price approaches the ATH region.

Disclaimer

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, derivative, or financial instrument. The analysis and opinions expressed reflect the author’s views at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice.

All information is derived from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty is made regarding future price behavior or outcomes.

Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial advisor before acting on any information contained herein.

The author and/or affiliates may hold, trade, or have a financial interest in the securities or instruments mentioned in this publication. Neither the author nor any associated party accepts liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this material.