Technical Overview

Monthly and weekly trends are bearish, with price in an active expansion phase and trading below key weekly and monthly reference levels, confirming downside continuation.

Bias 🔴

Bearish while price remains below the weekly pivot at 128.907; a weekly close above this level invalidates the bearish expansion.

Path

127.237 → 125.577 → 124.552

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

The US10Y structure is now approaching a critical alignment across all major timeframes. While the monthly and weekly long trends remain intact, the recent short countertrend structure on the weekly has held back continuation. However, that may be changing.

Long-Term Outlook

On the weekly and monthly charts, the long trend remains structurally valid. The pullback from the recent highs respected the weekly pivot at 4.255%, which has acted as a support base through the recent cycle. The weekly target Fibonacci zone between 5.05% and 5.23% remains the structural destination if this alignment holds and continuation unfolds.

The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows the key dynamics clearly. The market had been compressing below the downward-sloping countertrend line, bounded by a series of orange-marked pivot levels:

• 4.255% (weekly pivot)

• 4.398%, 4.450%, and 4.508% (countertrend daily and weekly pivots)

After retesting the lower boundary, the recent impulse suggests a possible break of the short countertrend. If confirmed, this would align daily structure with the long weekly/monthly trend and activate the higher timeframe targets.

Short-Term Dynamics

The H4 chart has confirmed the first structural breakout. Price has reached the short countertrend line, forming a new impulsive leg after a rejection from the weekly pivot. This sets up a potential continuation move, with room for accumulation above 4.255% and through the pivot levels.

A significant H4 break above the 4.466% zone may now offer continuation setups, supported by the breakout above the short-term green trendline.

Trigger Conditions

• Long Trigger: Clean breakout above the H4 green trendline and the clean H4 breakdown at 4.466%.

• Short Trigger: Wait for a clean weekly break below the weekly pivot at 4.255%.

Target Zones

• Daily Target Fibonacci: 4.60–4.75%

• Weekly Target Fibonacci 138.2: 5.05%

Validity

The setup remains valid as long as the price holds above the 4.255% weekly pivot. A sustained breakdown below this level would negate the expansion setup.

What’s your take on US10Y’s alignment? Share your view in the comments!

⚠️ WARNING: US CPI data is coming today.

Weekly Overview – Long-Term Trend Intact

On the weekly timeframe, the market remains in a well-established long trend, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The structure is clean, and there are no signs of trend exhaustion. The market has not entered any long-term correction zone, and the bullish structure is technically valid and dominant.

This structural context sets the foundation for any lower timeframe analysis. As long as the weekly pivot (not violated) remains intact, the bias stays firmly long. The price action supports an ongoing expansion phase, especially given the confirmation now visible on the lower timeframes.

Daily Structure – Countertrend Broken, Target Active

The daily timeframe had been in a short countertrend, but this has now been cleanly invalidated by a strong bullish impulse. The move broke through the previous lower high with a decisive candle, closing above resistance and resuming alignment with the weekly trend.

• The next logical target lies at the Daily Fibonacci 138.2 extension, located at 4.689%, which also corresponds with a clean historical breakdown zone on the daily chart.

• This dual significance makes 4.689% a critical reaction zone—it is both a target and a structural test level.

As long as the market remains above the daily pivot zone, the bias remains bullish toward this target.

H4 Confirmation – Clean Breakout with Wave Structure

Zooming in on the H4 timeframe, we see a textbook confirmation of trend resumption:

• The previous H4 short countertrend has been broken with a strong, well-defined bullish wave.

• Importantly, this wave closed above the last southward impulse, which had been a clean breakdown level.

The highest clean H4 breakdown zone (at 4.577%) is now the first local target. This level acts as a short-term reaction zone, where bulls may take partial profits or reload positions.

• If price consolidates above this H4 zone, it may act as a launchpad toward the higher timeframe target at 4.689%.

• A rejection at this level may bring about a retest of the broken daily or H4 pivots, but would not invalidate the long bias unless those zones are broken.

Conclusion – Expansion in Progress

The US10Y is now in a multi-timeframe bullish alignment, with the weekly, daily, and H4 structures all pointing toward further upside. The path to 4.689% is structurally supported, with short-term reaction zones offering tactical entries for trend-followers.

As always, trend alignment does not equal certainty—but it creates an environment where expansion phases are more likely. Traders may consider long setups on valid pullbacks or breakout continuations, keeping an eye on price behavior around the H4 reaction zone and the daily target.

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On the monthly chart, the long-term uptrend remains intact and dominant. The short countertrend line has been decisively broken, confirming the end of the consolidation phase and initiating a new expansion leg.

The market has reclaimed territory above previous resistance levels and now eyes the Fibonacci extension targets at 5.40%, 5.60%, and ultimately 5.79%, which mark the 138.2%, 161.8% extensions and a monthly breakdown respectively. The structure suggests increasing upward momentum, supported by the large bullish breakout candle on the daily that invalidates prior bearish pressure.

Weekly Trend – Structural Break and Expansion Phase

The weekly chart supports the bullish case with a confirmed breakout above the falling wedge structure. Price has now closed above key resistance levels and is sustaining above the prior breakdown zone.

This validates the expansion phase that was already forming on the monthly.

Weekly Fibonacci extension levels align with the monthly targets, with a clear path towards 5.40%–5.80%, unless invalidated by a breakdown below the 4.25% weekly pivot zone. The trendline break further adds to the technical confluence for higher yields ahead.

Daily Trend – Breakout Trigger Confirms Bullish Continuation

The daily chart reveals a fresh breakout above the short-term descending trendline, confirmed by a strong bullish trigger candle.

This move follows a successful defense of the key support levels at 4.34%, 4.39%, and 4.45%, forming a solid base for continuation.

The breakout has occurred just below the 61.8% retracement, and a daily close above 4.51% sets the stage for a run toward 4.69%, a clean daily breakdown, with further targets at 4.76% and 4.83% on the daily timeframe.

With all higher timeframes aligned and the trend structure clean, this sets up a textbook bullish expansion scenario.

Conclusion

All three major timeframes—monthly, weekly, and daily—are now aligned to the upside in a bullish expansion phase. The technical structure suggests the path of least resistance is higher, with breakout confirmations across all charts.

As long as the key pivot levels (especially 4.25% on the weekly and 4.39–4.45% on the daily) remain intact, this market has significant upside potential, with 5.40%–5.80% as long-term targets.

This setup represents a strong momentum continuation across timeframes—yield traders and macro participants should take note.

This analysis is not a forecast. It reflects the structure of the market and the zones where trend alignment across timeframes may trigger expansion phases.