Technical Overview

EURUSD has transitioned decisively into the expansion phase after breaking the weekly and daily bearish countertrend structure, with momentum now targeting upper Fibonacci extensions and the weekly breakdown at 1.2020.

Bias

Long until Daily Close < Daily Pivot @ 1.16266

Path

1.1866 → 1.1940 → 1.2020

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

Price is compressing beneath a declining H4 countertrend line; a full acceptance above 181.542 transitions the market from compression into expansion toward upper Fibonacci objectives.

Bias

Long bias until H4 close << 181.012.

Path

181.542 → 181.656 → 182.259 → 182.342

Technical Overview

H4 remains in rising compression with long bias intact above the H4 pivot, but expansion requires a full H4 close above 181.542

Bias

Long bias until H4 closes below the H4 pivot at 180.589

Path

181.138 → 181.542 → 181.656 → 182.259 → 182.342

Technical Overview

H4 holds a corrective-long structure toward upper Fibonacci extensions while W/D pivots maintain a dominant bearish phase, leaving upside in the valid countertrend.

Bias

🟢 Long bias valid until H4 closes below 1.15688,
🔴 Bearish expansion reactivates with a significant H4 close below 1.15258.

Path

In the currently valid H4 bullish trend — 1.16142 → 1.16220 → 1.16522

I’m trying to find the best format to present my ideas here. Here is the new short form.

Stay Disciplined,
Peter

GBPJPY | Primary Bullish Expansion

Trend: Bullish on every major timeframe | Phase: Expansion

Trigger: Since only one H4 wave closed to a new peak, wait for a pullback on H1/M15 and trade the countertrend break.

Invalidation: D Close < 202.703 | Daily bullish structure breaks here.

Path: 203.995 → 204.481 → 204.670 → 204.780 → 205.062 → 205.241-266

Read more about my methodology – definitions, colors, … etc.

Short disclaimer: trading is risky and the only constant in the markets is change!

• The bullish megatrend has been valid since 2008.

• The monthly bearish countertrend is also valid, with the most recent bearish impulse starting in January 2025.

Key Chart | Weekly

• The last bearish impulse is highlighted and has already reached the weekly Fibonacci 138.2 target.

• A significant monthly breakout from January 2022 has been approached but not yet tested. With this breakout, the market entered its expansion phase back in 2022.

• A major long-term target zone has now been reached by the latest impulse.

Furthermore…

• The previous candle formed a hammer at the target.

• The pace of decline has clearly slowed.

• The weekly pivot — the start of the last bearish impulse — has been touched, giving us a complete first and second leg in the potential reversal structure.

Implications

• The impulse meeting a long-term target may trigger a countertrend move.

• One more upward impulse would be enough to complete the reversal.

• A significant break above the weekly pivot (98.774) would confirm the reversal on the weekly timeframe.

• This would mean the bullish countertrend begins above the weekly pivot, targeting the Fibonacci 38.2–61.8 correction zone.

• The bullish expansion of the primary megatrend resumes above the countertrend line break at the last untested breakdown of the previous bearish impulse.

• If the weekly pivot holds, however, the bearish impulse may continue.

EUR/USD continues its long-term bullish trend, with price recently extending into the weekly 161.8% target Fibonacci at 1.17777. While higher timeframes still suggest upside potential—particularly toward the monthly breakdown and daily 200% target Fibonacci—the H4 structure has now been broken, indicating a potential countertrend correction in the short term.

Long-Term Outlook

On the monthly and weekly charts, the long expansion phase remains intact. The current leg has reached a critical resistance at 1.17777 (Weekly 161.8%), slightly below the Monthly breakdown at 1.18566. This zone may act as a supply area and cause a short-term pause or reversal, particularly if lower timeframes confirm structural breaks.

The weekly close below 1.15222 (Weekly Pivot) invalidates the bullish trend structure. The emergence of supply around the current levels warrants a closer look at correction potential.

The Daily Chart

The daily structure remains bullish with consecutive higher highs and higher lows. The price recently extended through the daily 161.8% target Fibonacci and is approaching the daily 200% target Fibonacci, located above 1.19350, indicating the long trend still has room to expand—assuming lower timeframe support holds.

Any pullback remains a correction within the long trend unless daily pivot support at 1.14807 is broken.

Short-Term Dynamics

On the H4 chart, the structure has broken down after a post-ADP data reaction, in spite of its USD negative nature, suggesting the start of a countertrend move. Price rejected from the upper range and closed below the H4 pivot at 1.17655, which marks a confirmed break of structure.

The current move could be classified as a corrective leg targeting lower Fibonacci retracements:

• 23.60% correction Fibonacci and H4 breakout at 1.17304

• 38.20% correction Fibonacci and H4 breakout at 1.16824

If price fails to reclaim the broken H4 pivot (1.17655), these retracements become key zones of interest for tactical shorts.

The short trigger path is mapped out via a red zigzag arrow suggesting a breakdown continuation.

Key Levels

• Short Trigger: break of any H1/M15 long countertrend, as long as the new H4 pivot at 1.18076 is not broken.

• Long Trigger: None active until H4 structure is reclaimed above 1.17655

Validity

The current countertrend setup remains valid below the new H4 pivot at 1.18076. Reclaiming this level could invalidate the short thesis and reintroduce the potential for continuation toward the daily 200% Fibonacci and monthly breakdown.

Summary

EUR/USD’s long trend remains structurally intact on higher timeframes, but the recent H4 break below 1.17655 introduces a countertrend move targeting correction Fibs. Price is likely to probe lower into the 1.17304–1.16824 range unless buyers reclaim the broken structure. This is a tactical correction within a bullish macro trend, not a reversal unless confirmed by deeper structure breaks.

What’s your take on the H4 breakdown—short-term retracement or start of deeper correction?

EURJPY has completed a clean bullish expansion through the 138.2% weekly target Fibonacci at 169.300, following a multi-timeframe impulse structure. The move confirms alignment across weekly and daily charts, with the current H4 structure serving as the tactical control zone. Price action is approaching decision levels that will determine whether continuation toward the 161.8% target Fibonacci unfolds or whether a short-term correction resumes.

Weekly Structure

The weekly chart confirms a strong bullish continuation after the breakout above 163.848 and 166.626, with no significant resistance until upper Fibonacci levels. The push into the 169.300 zone marks completion of the first key extension move. Structure remains in clear expansion mode, and price is now trading above prior highs, signaling a confirmed macro continuation phase.

Daily Chart

Daily structure shows impulsive continuation following the breakout above the daily pivot zone between 166.630 and 167.384. Price has respected the higher low sequence and closed above previous resistance, confirming the continuation pattern. The next potential upside magnet is the weekly 161.8% target Fibonacci, located just below 172.000.

Key daily levels:

• Pivot Zone (support): 166.630–167.384

• Current structure high: 169.226 (also Fibonacci 138.2)

H4 Timeframe

H4 structure remains in a minor uptrend despite the recent correction. A valid countertrend line (marked in red) is still intact, offering structural support above the H4 breakout at 168.433.

• If price breaks below this red trigger level and closes under 168.433, it would signal a short-term breakdown, targeting the H4 and daily pivot zones below (167.548–167.384).

• Conversely, a significant H4 close above 169.226 would validate the continuation scenario toward the weekly 161.8% Fibonacci.

This timeframe is tactically decisive: it will determine whether the market enters a deeper pullback phase or resumes toward the next weekly extension.

Key Levels

• Long Trigger: H4 close above 169.226

• Short Trigger: H4 break and close below 168.433

Target Zones

• Weekly Target Fibonacci 161.8%: ~171.800–172.000

• Daily Re-test Zone: 167.548–167.384 (pivot zone support)

Validity

The current minor long structure remains valid as long as the market holds above 168.433 (H4 pivot and daily breakout retest).

Conclusion

EURJPY remains in macro bullish continuation, having reached the weekly 138.2% target. The H4 structure now holds the tactical key. If the minor uptrend persists and price closes above 169.226, the weekly 161.8% target comes into view. A breakdown below 168.433 would suggest a corrective leg toward the 167.548–167.384 zone.

Actionable Insight

Watch for a decisive H4 close above 169.226 to signal continuation. Breakdown below 168.433 opens room for a retrace into the daily pivot zone—potential re-entry for bulls if structure holds.

How are you interpreting the EURJPY? Share your view in the comments—let’s compare frameworks.

EUR/USD continues its bullish expansion across all higher timeframes, with structure confirming alignment from daily to monthly charts. Following a clean impulsive reversal of the daily countertrend, the pair now targets a key Fibonacci zone and prior breakdown structure just below 1.18.

Monthly Trend

The pair has reached the previous monthly breakdown zone at 1.16476, marking a technically significant level from which major distribution began in 2021. The next key monthly level above is 1.17308, with a historical pivot at 1.22258. These levels form part of a larger potential retracement into the monthly macro range.

Weekly Structure

The weekly chart confirms a clear bullish impulse breaking through 1.16000—the 138.2% weekly Fibonacci target. Price is now extending toward the confluence of historical breakdown and Fibonacci projection around 1.16990. A move beyond this would open room toward the weekly 161.8% target at 1.17775.

Daily Chart

The daily timeframe shows a completed countertrend correction, which broke both structure and the descending countertrend line with a decisive impulse. This reversal reclaimed key resistance at 1.15609 and is now advancing into the next target zones:

• Daily target Fibonacci 138.2% at 1.16476

• Weekly breakdown level and cluster at 1.16990

The daily pivot zone between 1.13966 and 1.14444 remains intact and unviolated. As long as this zone holds, the upside structure remains valid and in expansion mode.

Key Trigger Levels

• Green Countertrend Breakout: Above 1.15510

• Daily Long Trigger Zone: Confirmed above descending green trendline

Target Zones

• Daily Target Fibonacci 138.2%: 1.16700

• Weekly Breakdown Retest Zone: 1.16990

• Weekly/Daily Target Fibonacci 161.8%: 1.17775

Validity

The setup remains valid above the daily pivot zone (1.13966–1.14444). A sustained break below this area would challenge the current bullish continuation structure.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is structurally aligned across all higher timeframes, with the recent daily impulse validating the end of correction. With the countertrend broken and momentum pointing toward the 1.16700–1.17775 zone, this area becomes the critical focus for continuation or rejection. As long as the daily pivot holds, this remains an active expansion scenario.

How are you interpreting this structure? Share your view in the comments—let’s compare frameworks.

USD/HUF is at a pivotal multi-timeframe structure zone. The pair is reacting to a cluster of long-term levels, testing the base of the monthly megatrend structure after an extended bearish leg. While the short trend is intact on lower timeframes, higher timeframe support has not yet cleanly broken—creating a technically significant inflection point.

Monthly Trend

The pair has broken below the prior monthly pivot at 355.580, but the current candle has not yet closed below it. Price has reacted to the monthly technical zone at 347.335–346.724, halting the decline—for now. A close below this zone would validate the next leg toward the monthly breakout zone at 327.020–324.612, with a deeper technical target near 321.725, aligning with the 161.8% monthly target Fibonacci.

Weekly Structure

The weekly chart confirms a short trend continuation phase. Price is descending cleanly and heading toward the daily 138.2% target Fibonacci at approximately 332.000, just above a prior weekly low. The structure suggests no interruption to this bearish flow unless the weekly pivot at 360.810 is reclaimed.

Daily Chart

The short trend remains intact on the daily, with price respecting the lower highs and clean breakdowns. The market is compressing just above the monthly support zone, hinting at either:

• A short-term bounce to retest the daily pivot at 354.195, or

• A continuation through the current support zone toward the 100% monthly Fibonacci target and the weekly 138.2% extension.

No reversal signs are visible unless a daily close reclaims higher pivot territory.

Key Trigger Levels

• Long Trigger (Long Reversal Validity): Weekly pivot at 360.810

• Short Trigger (Short Continuation Validity): Clean break and close below 346.724

Target Zones

• Monthly Target Fibonacci (100%): 338.500

• Monthly Breakout Zone: 327.020–324.612

• Extended Monthly Target (138.2%): 316.000

Validity

The structure remains valid below the daily pivot at 354.195. Any move above the weekly pivot (360.810) would shift the short thesis toward a possible macro correction or reversal phase.

Conclusion

USD/HUF is sitting at the edge of a significant monthly support. The short trend is clean across timeframes, but price is confronting a historical support zone. A clean breakdown opens room toward 330.000 and below, while a move above 360.810 invalidates the short setup and opens long continuation potential.

Actionable Insight

Watch for a clean daily close below 346.724 for continuation. If bulls reclaim 360.810, shift focus toward long setups aligned with the higher timeframe pivot recovery.

How are you interpreting this monthly zone compression? Share your view in the comments—let’s compare frameworks.

EUR/HUF has entered a pivotal technical juncture across the higher timeframes. Following a correction from multi-month highs, the pair is attempting to rebuild a bullish structure, supported by a confluence of trendlines, key Fibonacci extensions, and reclaimed structural levels.

Monthly Trend

The monthly chart shows a well-established long-term uptrend, supported by a strong ascending trendline dating back to 2023. Despite a corrective pullback from the all-time high (ATH) at 434.454, the structure remains intact above the key monthly levels at 394.960 and 392.785. These form the long-term pivot zone, which has held firm during the recent retracement.

Weekly Structure

On the weekly chart, a short-term countertrend has broken to the upside. The first wave of the new weekly leg has tested the weekly breakdown level at 410.582, but failed to close above it. This level marks a critical resistance within the broader bullish continuation pattern.

The green ascending trendline from mid-2023 remains structurally intact, with recent price action bouncing from this dynamic support area—suggesting renewed bullish intent.

Daily Chart

The daily chart confirms a break of the short-term countertrend structure with a fresh impulsive candle closing above the descending green trendline. This development turns the daily structure into a minor bull trend, shifting focus to higher levels.

Price is currently consolidating below the 407.425 breakdown level, the highest clean breakdown on this timeframe. This is now a key trigger level for initiating the expansion phase of primary long trend.

Trigger Levels

• Bullish Trigger: Clean break and close above 407.425

• Support Zone: 403.040 – 399.150 (multi-timeframe demand)

• Invalidation: Daily close below 397.915 suggests deeper retracement risk toward monthly pivot at 392.785

Target Zones

If 407.425 is breached, the upside Fibonacci targets are:

• 410.582 (100% retrace of previous drop)

• 414.000-416.500 (daily target Fibonacci zone)

• 422.323 (weekly target Fibonacci 138.2%)

• 426.000+ (extension zone aligning with the 261.8% Fibonacci on daily)

Summary

EUR/HUF is transitioning back into a bullish structure across all timeframes. The recent daily breakout aligns with a broader weekly recovery phase, with 407.425 as the key breakout zone. Holding above the short-term support cluster opens the door for a momentum push into the high 410s and beyond.

Actionable Insight

Monitor price action at 407.425 closely. A clean daily close above this level sets the stage for a multi-week bullish continuation in the expansion phase. Traders should look for confirmation via sustained momentum candles and intraday retests of breakout zones for optimal entries.

Stay subscribed for updates as this setup unfolds—momentum is building, and timing will be critical.

On the monthly chart, the pair continues to trace lower highs and lower lows, confirming the prevailing bearish megatrend.

However, the recent advance has carried price into the lower boundary of the monthly breakdown zone—around 1.1647. This zone now serves as the ultimate battleground: a convincing monthly close above 1.1699 would signal a shift in control toward buyers and open the door to 1.1730 and higher monthly resistance levels. Until that break occurs, the broader trend remains favoring the downside.

Weekly Analysis: Fibonacci Cap and Support Pivot

Since April, the pair climbed to the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the April–May swing, roughly between 1.1480 and 1.1500. This level has emerged as a natural ceiling, repeatedly stalling upside momentum. Beneath price, the weekly pivot at 1.1365 has held as support; maintaining this level is essential to preserving any longer-term recovery prospects.

A breakdown below 1.1365 would rekindle the broader downtrend, whereas its defense keeps the countertrend scenario alive.

Daily Analysis: Correction Zone and the Green Trigger

On the daily timeframe, recent candles have retraced into the correction zone, spanning 1.1444 down to 1.1397. This band now acts as a demand area where countertrend buyers may step in. Above the current range, the confluence of the daily and H4 down-trendlines meets at 1.1551—our trigger zone.

A daily close above it would confirm renewed bullish intent and invite a move back toward weekly Fibonacci extensions and the monthly breakdown zone. Failure to reclaim this level would likely draw price deeper into the orange zone, testing the strength of bears as they defend lower pivots.

Intraday/H4 Analysis: Awaiting Confirmation

The 4-hour chart mirrors the daily structure. Intraday prices have pierced the down-trendline drawn from recent highs, yet a confirmed breakout demands a H4 close above 1.1551.

Until that confirmation arrives, intraday swings are vulnerable to reversal. With each dip toward the orange correction zone, sellers face mounting risk—especially as price nears the daily pivot zone at 1.1396-1.1444, where technical interest from buyers may intensify.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains anchored by its monthly bearish trend, yet a valid countertrend rally is in play.

The level at 1.1551 serves as the fulcrum: a sustained break higher will shift focus toward weekly and monthly resistance, while rejection will deepen the pullback into the correction zone.

Patience, precision, and respect for these technical thresholds will be crucial as the market decides its next major move.

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The GBPJPY pair has signaled a significant shift in momentum, as the weekly chart has broken its countertrend structure with a confirmed bullish wave. This breakout confirms the beginning of an expansion phase on the higher timeframe, validating the weekly Fibonacci target levels, with the Fibonacci 100 as the primary long-term objective.

Daily Trend Aligned – Expansion Phase Active

The daily timeframe is already in an established long trend, actively expanding toward its next targets. The structure remains clean, with no significant resistance until the 138.2–161.8 Fibonacci extension zone, which aligns with the weekly expansion context.

H4 Breakdown – Reaction Zone and Trigger Area

On the H4 chart, the market is currently interacting with a clean breakdown level, which acts as a short-term reaction zone. If bulls absorb this level and close above it with a confirmed wave structure, it will mark a renewed alignment across the daily and H4 trends. In such a scenario, both the daily Fibonacci targets (138.2–161.8) and the weekly Fibonacci 100 level will become actionable targets for the bulls.

Validation Level

The weekly pivot zone remains the key validation level. As long as the market holds above this zone, the bullish scenario remains intact. A breakdown below would invalidate the current expansion thesis and shift focus back to a corrective structure.

Summary

The GBPJPY pair has confirmed a bullish shift on the weekly timeframe with a clean countertrend break. The daily trend is in active expansion, and the H4 chart is testing a key reaction zone.

If this short-term resistance gives way, upside targets at the daily 138.2–161.8 Fibonacci zone and the weekly 100 level come into focus.

The setup remains valid above the weekly pivot zone, which serves as the key invalidation level for this bullish scenario.

If you found this analysis helpful, like this post and leave a comment below — I’d love to hear your thoughts or questions about GBPJPY or any other market you’d like to see covered!

This bullish continuation remains valid as long as price holds above the daily pivot zone around 1.1347–1.1366. A potential retest of this area could offer renewed long opportunities before further upside toward the final target zone. A break below this pivot, however, would invalidate the setup and shift focus back toward lower support zones.

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Weekly Timeframe

The broader structure shows a strong bullish impulse breaking above a long-standing weekly countertrend line. The rally reached and respected the 138.2% Fibonacci extension level, triggering only a shallow correction that held above the 38.2% retracement level. This confirms a structurally strong trend where buyers remain in control, and deeper retracements are currently being rejected.

Daily Timeframe

The daily chart confirms the bullish narrative. The market has completed its correction and broke through the daily countertrend line, flipping the structure back to bullish. Price is holding above key support levels, particularly the daily pivot zone around 1.12804, which now acts as the primary invalidation point for this bullish scenario.

Targets are clearly aligned with the Fibonacci expansion levels:

• 1.15150 – Daily Target Fibonacci 100%

• 1.16700 – Daily Target Fibonacci 138.2%

H4 Timeframe

The H4 structure shows early bullish momentum resuming after a brief correction. The market has successfully reclaimed the last major H4 breakdown level and broke out of a local descending trendline. This suggests a new short-term impulse is underway.

Fibonacci targets on this timeframe provide the next upside projections:

• 1.14750 zone – H4 Target Fibonacci 138.2%

• 1.15150 – H4 Target Fibonacci 138.2% and confluence with Daily Target Fibonacci 138.2%

The move remains valid and structurally intact as long as the price holds above the Daily Pivot (1.12804). A break below this level would open the path to deeper retracements toward the Weekly Pivot Zone (1.08789 – 1.08155).

Outlook

• Bias: Bullish continuation

• Short-term targets: 1.14750 / 1.15150

• Medium-term target: 1.16700

• Invalidation: Daily pivot at 1.12804