Technical Overview

The daily countertrend line is broken and the lowest clean H4 breakout has failed, confirming bearish structural alignment across both timeframes.

Bias

Bearish below 2,962 with structure now in expansion to the downside; invalidation requires a sustained reclaim back above the broken H4 pivot zone.

Path

2,860 → 2,760 (Daily 100%) → 2,550 (Daily 138.2%)

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

Price is advancing within a developing ascending channel, holding above the corrective base and building toward the next structural reaction zones at 94,503.96 and 100,000.

Bias

Bullish as long as daily closes remain above 86,282.36 (invalidation level).

Path

94,503.96 → 100,000 → 100,996.87

Disclaimer

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, derivative, or financial instrument. The analysis and opinions expressed reflect the author’s views at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice.

All information is derived from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty is made regarding future price behavior or outcomes.

Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial advisor before acting on any information contained herein.

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• Upside scenario: Primary bullish expansion is likely to gain momentum above the Weekly Countertrend Pivot.

• Downside scenario: A bearish countertrend expansion may unfold if price falls below the untested daily breakout level.

This setup frames the critical inflection points where directional conviction is expected to emerge.

Bitcoin remains in a strong bullish structure across all major timeframes. The weekly expansion has just tagged its 161.8% target Fibonacci, while the daily uptrend is still holding above its key pivot. As long as the daily structure stays intact, higher timeframe Fibonacci levels remain in play as continuation targets.

Long-Term Outlook

The weekly chart confirms a clear expansion phase following a clean breakout from the pivot zone near $101,000. Price has now hit the 161.8% weekly target Fibonacci near $118,000, which aligns with a temporary consolidation. The broader structure remains bullish, with no indication of major distribution or reversal. Higher Fibonacci targets at 176.4% ($124,000) and 186.8% ($126,000) become relevant if price resumes upward movement.

Monthly structure is even more supportive, with price cleanly holding above the macro pivot at $82,534.32, reinforcing the validity of the multi-month bullish continuation.

The Daily Chart

Daily trend remains structurally intact. Price has held above the daily pivot at $117,312.70 despite several tests, indicating that the ongoing move is a shallow correction rather than a full reversal. The recent dip was quickly reclaimed, preserving the higher-low sequence and confirming continued strength in the bull trend. The current consolidation sits just below the $118,000 level, which was the 161.8% weekly target—a logical area for pause before the next leg.

Short-Term Dynamics

On the H4 chart, a descending countertrend structure has been broken to the upside. The breakout above $118,470.55 and especially the next level at $119,176.25 suggests bullish continuation. Price remains supported above the H4 pivot and daily pivot level, consolidating within a narrow range. If this consolidation resolves upward, the structure implies a stair-stepped path toward the upper H4 target Fib levels.

Trigger Conditions

• Long Trigger: Break and hold above $119,176.25

• Short Trigger: Break below daily pivot at $117,312.70 (would negate current long setup)

Target Zones

• Weekly Target Fibonacci:

  • 176.4%: ~$124,000

  • 186.8%: ~$126,000

  • 200%–263.8%: $128,000–$132,000

• H4 Target Fibonacci:

  • 138.2%–161.8%: $124,000–$127,000

Validity

The daily pivot at $117,312.70 defines the setup’s validity. A sustained break below would signal a deeper correction and delay further upside.

Summary

Bitcoin’s daily bullish trend remains intact as the weekly expansion hits its initial Fibonacci target. Consolidation just below $118,000 is a healthy pause rather than a structural reversal. If price reclaims $119,176.25, the next leg higher could aim for the upper weekly and H4 Fibonacci targets. A break below $117,312.70 would invalidate the current bullish setup and shift focus to deeper retracement levels.

What’s your take on this Bitcoin structure? Share your view in the comments—let’s compare frameworks.

Bitcoin has broken above the previous countertrend pivot on the daily chart, signaling a potential transition from corrective structure back into trend continuation mode. This move followed a clean interaction with a key confluence zone: the 138.2% daily target Fibonacci aligning closely with the 38.2% correction Fibonacci near $98,350. With this inflection, the structure now suggests renewed upside possibilities—provided the new daily pivot holds.

Weekly Structure

The weekly trend remains bullish following a recent break of the long-term countertrend line. The current weekly candle shows a modest reaction higher after testing weekly structural support, anchored at $100,996.87 (also the new daily pivot), with higher targets visible at $112,000 (ATH) and $113,000 (weekly 123.6% target Fibonacci).

Daily Chart

The decisive bullish daily candle that pushed above the prior short pivot zone confirmed a break in the daily countertrend structure. This move was triggered after price tapped the daily 138.2% target Fibonacci and bounced—an area overlapping the correction 38.2%, suggesting a high-probability exhaustion zone for the correction phase. As long as price holds above the newly established daily pivot at $100,996.87, the structure favors continued upside exploration.

H4 Timeframe

On the H4 chart, the short-term downtrend line (green) was breached, and price reclaimed the pivot zone around $104,915.60–$104,997.73. A clean breakdown level at $109,246.31 is now the immediate upside magnet. A pullback into the reclaimed daily pivot could provide a tactical re-entry opportunity. If that level holds, the trend could resume toward higher timeframe targets.

Key Levels

• Long Trigger: H4 countertrend line break above ~$105,000

• Orange Pivot Zone: $100,996.87 (daily) – must hold for bullish continuation

Target Zones

• H4 Breakdown Target: $109,246.31

• Weekly/ATH Target: $112,000

• Extended Fibonacci Target: $113,000 (123.6% weekly)

Validity

As long as the market holds above $100,996.87 (daily pivot), the upside structure remains valid. A breakdown below this level would suggest the correction phase is resuming, invalidating the immediate bullish outlook.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has invalidated the short-term countertrend structure with a strong impulsive candle from a confluence Fibonacci zone. This sets the stage for a potential trend resumption, with a first target at $109,246.31. Sustained strength above the new pivot confirms the structure, while a drop back below $101K would reset the setup.

Actionable Insight

Watch for a pullback into $104,915.60–$104,997.73 or $100,996.87 to assess long entries. A clean break and hold above $109,246.31 could open the path toward all-time highs.

How are you interpreting this structure? Share your view in the comments—let’s compare frameworks.

Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend with bullish targets ahead, but short-term uncertainty is re-emerging. A diamond-shaped consolidation on the daily timeframe reflects this hesitation, with both bullish and bearish pathways clearly mapped out.

Technical Analysis

On the long-term view, Bitcoin is advancing toward the weekly target Fibonacci 138.2, with the higher timeframes still aligned in favor of the bulls. The break of the previous macro countertrend and the strong bullish impulses suggest the potential for continuation toward the 112,000 level and beyond, with higher Fibonacci targets around 115,000–117,000 and even 120,000.

However, on the daily timeframe, uncertainty arises again. After briefly breaking above the recent daily pivot zone, the market has re-entered a diamond formation, indicating indecision. If price breaks below the inner zone of the diamond, there is a chance that BTC will revisit the correction Fibonacci 38.2%, currently sitting near 97,700.

On the short side, there’s a clean H1 breakout level (red) that, if broken, could validate this short-term bearish move. Bears should monitor the sell-side liquidity around this zone and consider managing risk proactively as price approaches it.

On the long side, bulls need to reclaim the H4 pivot zone and break the countertrend line decisively. A clean H4 breakdown level (green) marks the start of a potential expansion phase. Once broken, it would validate a renewed bullish expansion targeting the daily and weekly Fibonacci levels, with 112,000, 114,000, and beyond.

Outlook & Key Levels

• Bullish confirmation: Above the H4 pivot zone and countertrend line, targeting 112K+ (all-time high)

• Bearish continuation: Below the diamond’s inner base and H1 breakout, targeting 96-98K zone

• Key zone to watch: The orange daily pivot band around 104–106K – a battleground for short-term direction

I don’t forecast – I analyze and react at key levels.

This analysis focuses purely on trend structure, phases, and key reaction zones across multiple timeframes, without bias. Follow the chart, not predictions.

📩 If you enjoy these structured breakdowns, feel free to like and comment — and if there’s a market you’d like covered, just hit reply!

Daily: Impulse from Reaction Zone

The market responded with strength after entering the previously marked daily reaction zone, launching a clear and impulsive leg to the upside. This move validated the zone’s significance and acted as confirmation that buyers were stepping in aggressively.

H4: Countertrend Broken, Trend Re-Aligned

After the daily impulse, BTCUSD entered a minor H4 countertrend, which has now been broken to the upside, bringing the H4 structure back in line with the dominant daily trend. This synchronization strengthens the bullish case, as both timeframes now support further upside continuation.

📌 A synchronized daily and H4 trend increases the probability of entering an expansion phase — a phase where price moves faster and more directionally.

With higher timeframe resistances cleared, the only remaining structure is a clean breakdown level on the M5 chart at around $109,934. This micro-level resistance may invite new buyers upon a confirmed breakout, especially from short-term traders and scalpers front-running the larger move.

Target Zone: Weekly & H4 Fibonacci 138.2

The next high-probability target lies at the confluence of the:

• H4 target Fibonacci 138.2

• Weekly target Fibonacci 138.2

This confluence provides a strong magnet for price and a potential zone for profit-taking or reaction.

Scenario If Price Pulls Back

Should the market fall below the last H4 pivot at around $109,047, it would re-enter the short-term correction zone. However, this would not invalidate the overall long thesis. Instead, it may offer another opportunity for buyers to enter the market at better risk-reward levels.

Summary

• ✅ Daily impulse confirms bullish reaction from key zone

  A strong upward move from the daily reaction zone has validated the bullish scenario and initiated a new leg in the trend.

• ✅ H4 countertrend broken, aligning with daily

  The break above the H4 correction structure has re-established alignment with the dominant daily trend, enhancing the momentum outlook.

• ✅ Only M5 breakdown remains — possible short-term resistance

  The only remaining technical resistance is a clean breakdown on the M5 chart, which may attract short-term buying interest upon breakout.

• 🎯 Target: Weekly + H4 Fibonacci 138.2 confluence

  Price is now approaching the H4 and weekly Fibonacci 138.2 levels — a high-probability target zone for continued expansion.

• ⚠️ Invalidation below: Last H4 pivot (watch short-term correction zone)

  A move below the last H4 pivot would place BTC back in the correction zone. This does not negate the bullish structure, but it would delay continuation and potentially offer a better re-entry opportunity.

I don’t forecast, I analyze the trend structure and identify reaction zones where synchronized timeframes can trigger directional expansions.

Related analysis

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Weekly to H4
June 7, 2025

Weekly Structure – First Target Reached, Market Reacts

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has delivered a clean impulsive move, breaking through the macro resistance trendline and reaching the 123.6% Fibonacci extension. This target, aligned with historical market reactions, served as a major resistance zone, where supply has visibly emerged. Despite this, the bullish structure remains intact above the pivot region (~$78,000-$86,000), with higher Fibonacci targets between $114,000 and $124,000 still valid in case the trend resumes.

Daily Chart – Bulls React to Liquidity Sweep

The daily chart reveals that after a failed breakout below the local range—an evident sell-side liquidity grab—buyers stepped in with conviction. Price reclaimed the daily pivot zone (~$104,000–$106,000), which also coincides with the short-term countertrend line. However, price is still to test a dual breakdown zone (marked in green) that remains untested, creating a critical decision point.

A successful break and hold above this reaction zone (~$108,000) could reignite the long-term bullish expansion, targeting the 138.2% and 150% weekly Fibonacci extensions around $114,500–$118,000.

4H Chart – Liquidity Grab and Retest in Play

On the 4-hour chart, a nice impulse has reached the H4 target Fibonacci 200, then the bearish breakdown resulted in a liquidity grab just below $101,000, followed by a sharp reversal. This failure of the bears further weakens the short bias unless price breaks below the red level (~$101,900), which marks a clean H1 breakout zone.

Currently, the price is testing the short-term reaction zone (~$105,900–$107,300). If bulls reclaim this level with conviction, the long trend will likely accelerate. On the flip side, rejection here could open a path for a final corrective move back toward the blue Fibonacci level near $97,000, still within the daily correction structure. However, at the sell-side liquidity, the bears should manage their positions.

Conclusion

The market structure is still bullish on the weekly timeframe. However, a short-term countertrend remains valid unless the reaction zone above current price is decisively broken. The weekly impulse signals strength, and the recent liquidity grab suggests that the bears failed to maintain control.

Traders should:

• Watch for confirmation above $107,000 for long continuation

• Manage any short setups strictly below $101,900

• Keep targets aligned with the weekly Fib extensions: $112k, $116k, $118k, and $124k

This analysis is not a forecast. It reflects the structure of the market and the zones where trend alignment across timeframes may trigger expansion phases.

Related post

Since then, the H4 chart confirms Bitcoin remains trapped under a cluster of bearish structures:

• The daily short countertrend line (green) still caps the price.

• There’s been a clean H1 breakdown, but no follow-through yet.

• Price is consolidating above the 105,188–104,487 local support zone and riding the rising red trendline — a structure that currently holds the market together.

However, signs of weakness are mounting:

• The repeated failure to reclaim the breakdown levels at 106,966 and 107,326 shows fading bullish momentum.

• H4 pivot level has been broken by a bearish candle.

• If the red trendline and the clean H1 breakdown breaks with volume, it could signal the start of the deeper correction we anticipated.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Breakdown confirmation: below 104,447

• Bearish target: 97,700 — aligning with previous demand zones and the 38.2% retracement

• Invalidation of bearish thesis: sustained move above 107,329, and especially above 109,464

The structure is technically coiled for resolution. Traders should watch the 104K–105K region closely — it may decide the next 5–10K move.

Read the original analysis for full context.

On the weekly chart, the market broke through the previously valid weekly countertrend line with a strong impulse and reached the 123.6 Fibonacci extension level with momentum. The move displayed a clear structural character: it was a fast, decisive move that confirmed earlier trend continuation expectations.

At the same time, this level also acted as a natural resistance – from here, technically-based profit-taking could have started, building a new countertrend structure, which smaller timeframes reveal in more detail.

Daily Timeframe – Corrective Structure and Entry Opportunities

On the daily timeframe, the correction has already begun. The current structure is forming a valid countertrend, which means that the current pullback is technically grounded and interpretable.

The daily pivot zone marked in orange acts as a key resistance area.

As long as the price stays below this level, the primary focus remains on short opportunities.

The second downward counter-impulse has already reached the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level. This is the first “mandatory minimum” in a corrective structure. From here, two potential technical scenarios may unfold:

1. Counter-counter scenario: after another pullback, the next target could be the 38.2 Fibonacci level – typically the upper part of the corrective zone, from where selling pressure may resume.

2. Immediate continuation: if sellers maintain control, a direct breakdown from the 23.6 level is also a possible scenario.

It’s particularly worth watching for a reversal structure on the H4 timeframe after a daily breakdown – this could offer an excellent technical short entry.

Long Scenario – What’s Needed for Continuation?

The widely anticipated bullish scenario could activate if the market breaks through the daily pivot zone and the countertrend marked in white. In this case, we would be talking about the breakdown of the daily countertrend, which could open the way for new long impulses. Technically, such a breakout would project the continuation of the long trend visible on the weekly timeframe.

Such a wave movement would reactivate the Fibonacci target zones defined on the weekly chart, which already point to historical highs.

Summary

Technically, the daily countertrend is valid, marking the end of the weekly long impulse. There is room for short movement, but the market will become more interesting around the daily breakdown level, where good risk/reward opportunities may arise in both directions.