Countertrend expansion is on.

Bitcoin is back in the primary bearish trend

Michael Saylor may have a chance to lower his average entry price again, before losing everything for good.

Crude Oil prices don’t predict Trump gaining control of the war.

One post from Trump can change everything, but the market may be more and more sceptic about the “peace president” lol.

Gold is undecided, but the late sellers may get some ass kicked

However, this long trend is only the correction of the bearish countertred.

Not because markets stopped being interesting —

but because my attention was better spent elsewhere.

That part hasn’t changed.

What has changed is clarity.

What I realized during the quiet

Over the past months, I didn’t lose my edge.

I stopped talking about it —

and started observing how it breaks in real conditions.

Not on charts.

On decisions.

Same analysis.

Same structure.

Different outcomes — once accounts are funded and rules matter.

The work itself didn’t change.

The environment did.

Why good analysis isn’t enough

Most traders assume that once they:

• understand structure

• pass evaluations

• see the market correctly

the hard part is behind them.

In reality, that’s where a different problem begins.

Funded trading introduces pressure, limits, and consequences —

and those quietly reshape behavior.

Trades are still logical.

Decisions are not always clean.

This is where accounts usually die.

What this space will focus on now

I’m not coming back to publish more charts. I’ll do it on my X account and TradingView.

I’m coming back to write about:

• execution under pressure

• decision timing

• when not to trade

• why the same setup produces different outcomes

Market structure remains the context.

Execution is the subject.

This is not a restart

It’s a continuation —

with a narrower focus and higher stakes.

If you’ve ever felt that your trading changes

once money and rules are real,

you’ll recognize the topics ahead.

The work itself hasn’t changed — the way I use it has.

I’ve realized that my edge is not in publishing analysis, but in applying it quietly and consistently. Going forward, my focus will be on trading, execution, and decision-making — not on regular public commentary.

That said, this isn’t a dramatic exit.

If someone finds value in how I think about markets and would like to discuss an idea or analysis, feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to discuss about markets on a 1-to-1 basis.

For now, this space goes quiet.

Not because the markets aren’t interesting — but because my attention is better used elsewhere.

Thanks to everyone who read along.

Merry Christmas!🎄

Peter

Technical Overview

The daily countertrend line is broken and the lowest clean H4 breakout has failed, confirming bearish structural alignment across both timeframes.

Bias

Bearish below 2,962 with structure now in expansion to the downside; invalidation requires a sustained reclaim back above the broken H4 pivot zone.

Path

2,860 → 2,760 (Daily 100%) → 2,550 (Daily 138.2%)

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Using the Market Flow framework, each analysis focuses on phase, structural alignment, and directional validity, providing a clean read on trends that are accelerating or continuing.

Below is a concise summary of the expansion setups and their active directional paths.

EURUSD has moved into an active expansion phase on multiple timeframes after breaking its bearish countertrend, with price holding above the daily pivot. Bullish targets lie higher as long as key support levels hold.

Gold remains in a strong bullish expansion, having broken its bearish countertrend. Price is targeting upper Fibonacci levels with the bullish bias intact unless the daily pivot breaks.

Platinum is advancing within an up-channel, with expansion confirmed above the daily pivot. The trend stays bullish with progressive upside targets as long as support holds.

WTI crude remains structurally bearish on higher timeframes. Price is trading below countertrend levels, suggesting continued downside toward lower channel targets.

Euro-Bund futures stay in a dominant bearish expansion on weekly/monthly charts, with downside continuation active below key weekly pivot levels.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

Monthly and weekly trends are bearish, with price in an active expansion phase and trading below key weekly and monthly reference levels, confirming downside continuation.

Bias 🔴

Bearish while price remains below the weekly pivot at 128.907; a weekly close above this level invalidates the bearish expansion.

Path

127.237 → 125.577 → 124.552

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

Monthly and weekly structure remain bearish, with daily waves aligned to continuation while price trades below the daily countertrend VAL (58.243), keeping downside pressure intact.

Bias 🔴

Bearish continuation while the Weekly Close < Weekly Pivot at 60.163

Path

55.75 → 54.73 | → 53.07—52.54

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

Platinum is advancing within a well-defined ascending channel, with expansion active above the daily pivot.

Bias

Long until Daily Close < Daily Pivot at 1,658

Path

1,729 → 1,815 → 1,868 → 1,954

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

Gold back into its expansion phase following the decisive break of the bearish countertrend, with price holding above the daily pivot structure, targeting the daily Fibonacci 161.8 at 4,618.

Bias

Long until Daily Close < Daily Pivot (≈4,190–4,207 zone).

Path

4,355 → 4,401 → 4,518 → 4,581 → 4,618

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

EURUSD has transitioned decisively into the expansion phase after breaking the weekly and daily bearish countertrend structure, with momentum now targeting upper Fibonacci extensions and the weekly breakdown at 1.2020.

Bias

Long until Daily Close < Daily Pivot @ 1.16266

Path

1.1866 → 1.1940 → 1.2020

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Technical Overview

Price is advancing within a developing ascending channel, holding above the corrective base and building toward the next structural reaction zones at 94,503.96 and 100,000.

Bias

Bullish as long as daily closes remain above 86,282.36 (invalidation level).

Path

94,503.96 → 100,000 → 100,996.87

Disclaimer

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, derivative, or financial instrument. The analysis and opinions expressed reflect the author’s views at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice.

All information is derived from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty is made regarding future price behavior or outcomes.

Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial advisor before acting on any information contained herein.

The author and/or affiliates may hold, trade, or have a financial interest in the securities or instruments mentioned in this publication. Neither the author nor any associated party accepts liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this material.

Technical Overview

Price is compressing beneath a declining H4 countertrend line; a full acceptance above 181.542 transitions the market from compression into expansion toward upper Fibonacci objectives.

Bias

Long bias until H4 close << 181.012.

Path

181.542 → 181.656 → 182.259 → 182.342

Technical Overview

H4 structure continues to compress under the descending trendline, with repeated failure at 59.4–59.7 reinforcing seller control; a clean break of 58.157 is required to activate the next expansion leg down.

Bias

Short bias remains intact until H4 closes above 59.429.

Path

58.157 (expansion trigger) → 57.307 → 56.422

Across all four instruments, the H4 timeframe shows aligned higher-timeframe structure, controlled retracements into support zones, and unbroken key invalidation pivots.

Momentum compressions remain orderly rather than distributive, allowing long bias continuation.

Instrument-by-Instrument Summary

🥇 Gold (XAUUSD)

Gold continues to hold an inner-expansion phase, with price maintaining a constructive grind above its structural mid-range.

Pullbacks remain shallow, indicating sustained demand.

The market has yet to complete its next expansion leg, but the internal wave structure continues to support bias long above current H4 pivots, with the path favoring continuation toward upper-range liquidity.

💶 EURUSD

EURUSD’s H4 maintains a long bias, supported by consistent higher-lows and stable corrective retracements.

However, higher-timeframe structure suggests that the pair is approaching an overhead region where expansion may slow.

As long as the active H4 invalidation level holds, the path remains upward, but major follow-through relies on a clean break of the upper-timeframe barrier.

💴 EURJPY

EURJPY is in a clearly defined pre-expansion phase, compressing below the 181.542 area with a stable higher-timeframe foundation behind it.

The market has not yet confirmed breakout conditions, but the structure remains firmly bias long above H4 invalidation, with repeated defenses of the lower boundary.

The pair is preparing for its next expansion decision, with compression suggesting a directional release ahead once triggers are met.

🇩🇪 GER40 (DAX)

GER40 trades within a controlled corrective phase, leaning long as it moves gradually toward the upper boundary of the current H4 structure.

Momentum on the way up is moderate but intact, and the market continues to reject deeper pullback levels.

The setup favors continuation toward the ceiling of the corrective structure before a broader decision.

🇺🇸 DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average)

The Dow maintains a long bias, advancing toward the upper breakdown area within its H4 structure.

The current leg shows constructive higher-lows, although the index remains trapped below a key structural ceiling.

A breakout would confirm expansion, while failure here would return it to mid-range consolidation.

For now, structural alignment remains long as long as invalidation holds.

Cross-Market Synthesis

• All instruments preserve their H4 long bias with no active invalidation breakdowns.

• EURJPY and Gold show the most advanced early-expansion compression structures.

• Indices (GER40, DJIA) remain constructive but require upper-boundary confirmation for continuation.

• EURUSD remains structurally long but approaches higher-timeframe resistance.

Across markets, demand structure remains dominant, and compression phases continue to set up potential expansion legs.

Gold, EURUSD, EURJPY, GER40, and DJIA all maintain their H4 long bias. The market flow across all instruments supports continued upside structure as long as each chart holds its active invalidation pivot.

Technical Overview

H4 remains in rising compression with long bias intact above the H4 pivot, but expansion requires a full H4 close above 181.542

Bias

Long bias until H4 closes below the H4 pivot at 180.589

Path

181.138 → 181.542 → 181.656 → 182.259 → 182.342

Technical Overview

Price is advancing within an H4 long trend, with structure supporting continuation toward the 78.6% retracement and the H4 breakdown pivot at 48,312.28.

Bias

Bias long while H4 holds above the 47,432–47,459 pivot zone; invalidates on an H4 close below this area.

Path

47,703 → 47,852 (78.6%) → 48,312.28

Technical Overview

Price continues to climb within an H4 corrective-long trend, with momentum aimed toward the prior breakdown zone at 24,009–24,039.

Bias

Bias long while H4 close holds above the H4 pivot zone 23,758–23,798.

Path

→ 24,009 → 24,039

Technical Overview

H4 holds a corrective-long structure toward upper Fibonacci extensions while W/D pivots maintain a dominant bearish phase, leaving upside in the valid countertrend.

Bias

🟢 Long bias valid until H4 closes below 1.15688,
🔴 Bearish expansion reactivates with a significant H4 close below 1.15258.

Path

In the currently valid H4 bullish trend — 1.16142 → 1.16220 → 1.16522

Technical Overview

Gold continues to trade in the bullish inner-expansion phase, with structure pressing upward toward successive Fibonacci projection levels indicated on the chart.

Bias

D/H4 long until H4 close > 4,145.27.

Path

4,195.14 → 4,252.55 → 4,288.81 → 4,345.42-4,355.40

Bias

H4 Long until H4 Close > 58.358

Path

59.33 → 59.50 → 59.78 → 59.85

Key Chart (H4)